Stock market downturn and Juglar cycles

In historical business cycle studies a somewhat longer cycle called Juglar cycles of roughly 7-11 years of duration can be observed. It is now 10 years since the crash of 2008. Maybe yesterday’s events on the financial market will not develop into a recession or a full blown crisis, but if they do it is not all too unexpected. The figure below shows historically observed 8-16 year cycles for 1850-2010 for UK, US and Sweden’s GDP growth, applying a wavelet filter (Daubechies, MODWT). There is considerable correlation between UK and US, and in general for Sweden, excepting the WWII and immediate post-war period.

wavelet3

 

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